Jesus to Return in 2007, And Other Predictions

There are some things that you want to see in a survey, and some things you don't. It's important to know how people feel about a political trend, for instance, because the success of that trend depends on the public's vote. So when 70 percent of Americans oppose the war against Iraq, for instance, you can figure that any politician who wants to be elected next time around will adjust his stated opinions likewise.

On the other hand, you can ask people what they think the weather will be next year, and, yes, they'll tell you, but ... so what? You can ask them whether they think the stock market will go up or down, but responses will not correlate with the actual behavior of the market. You can ask them whether they believe the earth is warming up or not. These questions might be interesting for what they say about the public's attitude, their state of optimism, but you have to be careful not to read the majority's expressed belief as a substitute for fact. If ninety-nine percent of biologists take Darwinian evolution as a robust, comprehensive theoretical structure, but less than half of the public does, we need not consider the science of evolution to be in a state of controversy or challenge. It just means that the people have not been educated yet.

So read these results with skepticism. From the AP:

WASHINGTON - Another terrorist attack, a warmer planet, death and destruction from a natural disaster. These are among Americans' grim predictions for the United States in 2007.

Only a minority of people think the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea over those countries' nuclear ambitions. An overwhelming majority of those surveyed think Congress will raise the federal minimum wage. One-third see hope for a cure to cancer.

These are among the findings of an Associated Press-AOL News poll that asked people in the U.S. to contemplate what 2007 holds for the country. Poll: Americans see gloom, doom in 2007

This is funny. For some reason, this reporter put all the cheerful stuff at the top of the story (after that first worried paragraph). No war, cure for cancer, woo-hoo, those Americans are looking forward to this next year!

But, uh:

Six in 10 people think the U.S. will be the victim of a terrorist attack. An identical percentage thinks it likely that a biological or nuclear weapon will be unleashed somewhere else in the world.

Seventy percent of people in the U.S. predict a major natural disaster in the country and an equal percentage expects worsening global warming. Also, 29 percent think it likely that the U.S. will withdraw its troops from
Iraq.

Among other predictions for the U.S. in 2007:

_35 percent predict the military draft will be reinstated.

_35 percent predict a cure for cancer will be found.

_25 percent anticipate the second coming of Jesus Christ.

Whoa, roll it back, Joe. A quarter of Americans think Jesus will come back in 2007?

A quarter of us?

This is all, of course, just a chance for me to tell you about my favorite bumper sticker. You've seen the one, I'm sure, that says, "In case of Rapture, this car will be unmanned." It's cool and evocative, and concretely reminds us that when Jesus comes, the true believers will be snatched away in an instant. It does make you worry about the traffic tie-ups, if it turns out there are a bunch of them. Cars crashing up against the curbs, pedestrians jumping out of the way, it could be rather chaotic.

But that's not my favorite bumper sticker, of course. My favorite is the one that says, "In case of Rapture, Dude, can I have your car?"

Because, as we have noted here, the problem with religion, really, is that the different ones don't agree. If they portray the One Perfect Reality, then they ought to say the same thing. But we have people sacrificing their lives in the name of Jesus, and in the name of Mohammed, and so on, and they can't all be right. If you asked around the Arabic lands, they will swear, insistently, that they're right and the Christians are wrong. But if you asked around Europe and the American continents, you'd hear just the opposite. The same amount of conviction, the same amount of doubt -- the same amount of erudition and intelligence in both populations.

So a full quarter of Americans think this is it, this is the year Jesus returns. That means we don't need to put much effort into building a secure future, we don't need to worry about stuff like the environment, health care, building a strong defense, because ... well, I don't understand the theory in its entirety, but I think this means that only sinners will remain to experience the consequences of any long-term planning. It's not clear if only Baptists and Pentacostals will be whisked away, or if Methodists and Presbyterians will also be taken by the Rapture, and it appears that Catholics expect to go, but do Mormons? What about the Anglicans? Depending, a guy like me might end up with a nice ride.

In some of these, I expect the public is a little gullible. How can we not attack Iran? Do people really think The Decider has not Decided on that one?

Fewer than half the public think it likely the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea. Should it come down to that, 40 percent think the battle will be with Iran while 26 percent said North Korea.

Higher gas prices, legalized gay marriage and the possible arrival of bird flu also are seen as being in the cards.

More than 90 percent of people think higher gas prices are likely. A gallon of self-serve regular gasoline averaged $2.29 last week, compared with $3 over the summer.

Also, 57 percent said it is likely that another state will legalize gay marriage. Same-sex marriage is legal in Massachusetts; four other states offer civil unions or domestic partnerships.

People were split on whether 2007 will bring the U.S. its first bird flu case. More than 150 people worldwide have died from the disease. Health officials fear a pandemic if the virus mutates into a form easily passed from person to person.

Women generally were more likely than men to expect some of the more dire predictions to come true, such as a worldwide terrorist attack and war with Iran or North Korea. Democrats and people under 35 were more likely than Republicans and older people to say global warming will worsen in 2007.

It is somewhat interesting to see what people expect to happen. Of course their expectations are based on what they read in the press and see on TV, which is based on ... whatever some publishers and editors decide, which is based on ... who owns the company. But, not to get too cynical about it, let's note that the American people are a little gullible and a lot smart. They tend to believe what they're told, but they're capable of changing their minds, and they're able to read between the lines. The last elections showed us that.

Well, here we are: 2007. Pull up a chair, let's watch the game, let's see who wins, and see if there are any good plays that we can talk about in 2008.