Teen Pregnancy Correlates with Religiosity at the State Level

Here is a little study that took existing data and showed what you probably already knew -- states with the highest proportion of religious conservatives also have the highest teen pregnancy rates. Check this out:

Teen birth rate is very highly correlated with religiosity at the state level (P<0.0005), with more religious states having a higher rate of teen birth.

That's the conclusion drawn by Joseph M. Strayhorn, MD, a child and adolescent psychiatrist with faculty appointments at Drexel University College of Medicine and the University of Pittsburgh, in an analysis published in the open access journal Reproductive Health.

Strayhorn and co-author Jillian Strayhorn came to that conclusion by correlating Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in 2008 data with teen birth rate data from the CDC and income data from the U.S. Bureau of Census.

Not surprisingly, states with a higher religious index score had a lower abortion rate, so religiosity was predictive of both more teen births and fewer abortions (P=0.002), Strayhorn found.

The "correlation between religiosity and teen birth rate remained highly significant (P<0.0005) when income was controlled for," he wrote.

Strayhorn speculated that a "possible explanation for this relationship is that teens in more religious communities may be less likely to use contraception." Religious Beliefs No Barrier to Teen Pregnancy

That is a good guess. Teens in those communities are less likely to have comprehensive sex education, they are less likely to know how to prevent pregnancy, and they are no more likely to practice abstinence.

Ah, here is a wise statement:

Adding that it was possible that "conservative religious communities in the U.S. are more successful in discouraging use of contraception among their teen community members than in discouraging sexual intercourse itself."

Great. Just great.

Here is a careful statement. Since the analysis uses data aggregated at the state level, it is possible that it's the less religious girls getting pregnant, but in an environment that is influenced by religous conservatism.

He also cautioned against using the results to conclude that religious teens get pregnant more often.

"The associations we report could still be obtained if, hypothetically, religiosity in communities had an effect of discouraging contraceptive use in the whole community, including the nonreligious teens there, and only nonreligious teens became pregnant."

The "religious index" used in this analysis was based on responses collected by a Pew phone survey in 2007. The survey included 35,957 participants who were asked to respond to eight statements concerning religious beliefs.

On a state-by-state basis, the authors calculated the percentage of survey participants who endorsed these statements:

• Belief in God or a universal spirit: Absolutely certain.
  
• There is only one way to interpret the teachings of my religion.
  
• Scripture should be taken literally, word for word.
  
• Religion is very important in my life.
  
• Attend church at least once a week.
  
• Pray at least once a day.
  
• Receive an answer to specific prayer request at least once a month.

Finally, Stayhorn wrote that the findings "by themselves, of course, do not permit causal inferences."

That last statement is an acknowledgement of the statistical fact that "correlation does not imply causality." Of course in a time-lagged design you could use a different analytic approach, for instance in this case it is not likely that teen pregnancy causes religious conservatism, because, say, Mississippi (which rated highest in both religiosity and teen pregnancy) was a conservative Christian place before today's teenagers were born. So in reality, you can infer causality in this situation, though it would be better to use a regression analysis than linear correlation.

Young people should be taught about sex, how it works, what the consequences are, what choices can be made to reduce the negative consequences. But in some parts of the country (not necessarily geographical, perhaps demographic cross-sections) teen pregnancy is not seen as a negative outcome, but rather as God's blessing. The result is babies born to mothers who can't take care of them, the perpetuation of poverty and poor health, despair, and a major obstacle for the teen mother who dreamed of a career or even a marriage. I don't see a way to reason with people who believe that way, for them life is a bleak sequence of events that they have no control over. A major part of comprehensive sexual education is to empower women to take control of their own reproductive organs, and this is perceived as a big threat by some.